MVRV Proxy
×1.00
Fair value
Realized Price
$60,377
URPD approx
All SOPR
0.999
At loss
LTH SOPR
1.079
Distributing
STH SOPR
0.999
Underwater
Risk Score
0.28
Low risk
Dormancy
3.4d
Flow 0.26
Funding Rate
+0.012%
8h neutral
BTC Dominance
62.4%
7d +0.8%
Onchain health
Miner & network
Fee revenue share1.3%
Fees 24h0.24 BTC
Miner stressnone
Hashrate trend↑ 780 EH/s
Difficulty adj.+2.1%
Active addresses820k
Block height956,106
Strategy snapshot
SDCA signalACTIVE
BTC allocation60%
Alts allocation30%
Stables10%
Barbell risk sidemedium
Macro regimeBull mid-cycle
Open interest$18.4B
Derivatives snapshot
Funding rate (8h)+0.012%
Open interest$18.4B
OI / Mkt cap2.8% (moderate)
Long/short ratio1.24
Put/call ratio0.74
G4 liquidity & macro
G4 liquidity trendExpanding
Fed balance sheet 30d+$48B
Global M2 30d+2.1%
DXY101.2 (weak)
10yr yield4.31%
Chainfinit AI · Regime analysis
Auto-generated from BTC node snapshot — 15 min ago · block 956,106
UVWCS at 15.9 places the market firmly in an accumulation regime. MVRV sitting at exactly fair value (×1.00) suggests the market is neither euphoric nor deeply discounted — a healthy mid-cycle position.
LTH SOPR at 1.079 indicates long-term holders are distributing at a 7.9% average profit, which is modest and not characteristic of late-cycle exhaustion. STH SOPR below 1.0 (0.999) signals short-term holders are underwater — historically this coincides with local capitulation and presents a buy signal.
Miner health is strong: no stress signals, fee revenue stable at 1.3%, Puell multiple at 0.82. G4 macro liquidity expanding with +$48B Fed balance sheet growth supports continued risk-on behaviour.
Key risk: LTH distribution and MVRV at fair (not cheap) reduces the magnitude of upside conviction. Suggested posture: continue SDCA accumulation at current pace.
LTH SOPR at 1.079 indicates long-term holders are distributing at a 7.9% average profit, which is modest and not characteristic of late-cycle exhaustion. STH SOPR below 1.0 (0.999) signals short-term holders are underwater — historically this coincides with local capitulation and presents a buy signal.
Miner health is strong: no stress signals, fee revenue stable at 1.3%, Puell multiple at 0.82. G4 macro liquidity expanding with +$48B Fed balance sheet growth supports continued risk-on behaviour.
Key risk: LTH distribution and MVRV at fair (not cheap) reduces the magnitude of upside conviction. Suggested posture: continue SDCA accumulation at current pace.
Overall confidence
7.4 / 10
Moderate conviction
Bull case score
8.1
G4 + accumulation signal
Bear case score
3.8
LTH dist + STH loss
Critique breakdown
Onchain risk composite — 0 to 1 scale
0.28
LOW RISK
Accumulation zone
Percentile rank across 8 metrics
CYCLE: EARLY-MID
Readings below 0.30 historically mark generational buying zones. Above 0.85 signals cycle tops. Current 8-metric composite sits at 0.28 — firmly in the accumulation band.
Component breakdown (8 metrics)
Adaptive risk oscillator
0.31
Autocorrelation + entropy + fractal
LOW RISK BAND
Composite momentum
68%
Binary consensus bullish
BULLISH
AVIV Z-Score
0.8
Active MVRV normalised cycle
NEUTRAL
All SOPR
0.999
Market spending at loss
BELOW 1.0 — CAPITULATION
LTH SOPR
1.079
Long-term holders distributing
DISTRIBUTING AT PROFIT
STH SOPR
0.999
Short-term holders underwater
LOCAL BOTTOM SIGNAL
SOPR interpretation guide
Reading above 1.0Coins sold at profit — market health
Reading below 1.0Coins sold at loss — capitulation signal
LTH distributing modestlyHealthy distribution — not late-cycle
STH below cost basisHistorically marks accumulation opportunity
MVRV ratio
×1.00
Fair value zone
MVRV Z-Score
0.8
Well below danger zone (>7)
Active MVRV
×1.12
Active supply adjusted
LTH-MVRV momentum
Current1.41×
SignalNeutral
STH-MVRV momentum
Current0.94×
SignalBelow cost basis → accumulate
Net realized P/L
+$2.1B
30-day net USD
Net realized P/L (BTC)
+340 BTC
30-day net BTC
Net realized ratio
1.08
Profit / loss ratio
Sell-side risk ratio
LOW
Realized liquidity cycle: expansion
Low sell-side risk means market can absorb selling without significant price impact.
Mkt cap per $ invested
$3.2
Market cap gained / dollar
Liquidity capital change
Capital to valuation ratiomoderate
Realized liquidity trendexpanding
Realized cap
$1.21T
Aggregate cost basis
Rcap 30d change
+0.8%
Capital inflow signal
Realized price
$60,377
Average cost all BTC
LTH supply
76.2%
Long-term holders
STH supply
23.8%
Short-term holders
Supply >1yr
67.4%
HODLed long-term
Illiquid supply
77.3%
Not actively moving
HODL waves — supply age distribution
4%
8%
11%
9%
14%
18%
36%
1d–1w · 4%
1w–1m · 8%
1–3m · 11%
3–6m · 9%
6m–1yr · 14%
1–2yr · 18%
>2yr · 36%
LTH net position change
30-day+38,400 BTC
SignalAccumulating
Absorption rate 30d+1.2%
Absorption rate 365d+4.8%
Wallet distribution waves
Net pos. change 30d+38.4k BTC
Net pos. change 365d+182k BTC
Old hands distributingno
Coinday destroyed trendneutral
Hashrate
780 EH/s
30d trend: ↑ rising
Difficulty adj.
+2.1%
Last adjustment
Hashprice
$54/PH
USD per petahash/day
Puell multiple
0.82
Miner revenue / 365d avg
Fee revenue
Share of block reward1.3%
24h total (BTC)0.24 BTC
24h total (USD)~$14,900
Fee revenue Z-scorenormal
Miner economics
Block subsidy3.125 BTC
Miner stress signalnone
Miner selling pressurelow
Thermocap multiplemoderate
Active addresses
820k
30d momentum: rising
Transaction count
312k
30d momentum: neutral
Transfer vol. (USD)
$14.2B
24h on-chain
NVT price signal
fair
Network value vs txs
Address cohort counts
>0.1 BTC wallets4.8M
>1 BTC wallets1.02M
>10 BTC wallets158k
>100 BTC wallets16.4k
>1,000 BTC wallets2,100
Activity momentum
Active address momentumrising
Tx count momentumneutral
Coinday value destroyedneutral
Transfer vol. (BTC)229k BTC
Long-term holders (LTH >155 days)
BehaviourDistributing at profit
SOPR1.079
Supply held76.2%
Net pos. change 30d+38,400 BTC
Wealth concentrationmoderate
PVRaccumulation zone
Short-term holders (STH <155 days)
BehaviourSpending at loss
SOPR0.999
Supply held23.8%
Cost basis (est.)~$62,400
MVRV0.94× (below cost)
SignalCapitulation → accumulate
URPD — Unrealised Realized Price Distribution
Price-band share (99th pct)99.2%
Realized price$60,377
MVRV proxy×1.00 (fair)
Old hands distributingno
Pricing model signalsMayer ×1.1 · Pi Cycle: safe
Funding rate (8h)
+0.012%
Longs paying shorts
NEUTRAL-BULLISH
Open interest
$18.4B
All exchanges total
OI / Mkt cap
2.8%
Leverage ratio
MODERATE LEVERAGE
Long/short ratio
1.24
Longs dominant
Put/call ratio
0.74
Options bullish sentiment
Implied volatility (30d)
48%
IV level
3m futures basis
+8.2%
Annualized carry
Liquidation map
Next major cluster above (longs at risk)$72,400
Next major cluster below (shorts at risk)$58,200
24h liquidations total$142M
Longs liquidated 24h$84M
Shorts liquidated 24h$58M
BTC dominance
62.4%
7D: +0.8% · Alt season: far
ETH/BTC ratio
0.052
Below key 0.055 level
Asset ranking
| # | Asset | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 90D | RS Score | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC | $62,100 | +1.4% | +5.2% | +18.1% | +42% | 88 | STRONG |
| 2 | ETH | $3,240 | −0.6% | +3.1% | +11.4% | +28% | 64 | NEUTRAL |
| 3 | SOL | $148 | +2.1% | −1.8% | +9.3% | +19% | 59 | NEUTRAL |
| 4 | BNB | $580 | −0.9% | −2.4% | −3.7% | +4% | 31 | WEAK |
| 5 | AVAX | $28 | +0.4% | −4.1% | −8.2% | −12% | 22 | WEAK |
G4 liquidity
Expanding
Net positive 30d flow
Global M2 (30d)
+2.1%
Broad money supply
Fed balance sheet
+$48B
30D delta · easing
Stablecoin flow
inflows
Net 30D positive
Stablecoin supply
USDT market cap$148B
USDC market cap$48B
Total stablecoin supply$210B
30d net change+$8B
Macro risk gauges
DXY (USD index)101.2 — weak (bullish BTC)
10yr yield4.31%
VIX proxymedium
Risk appetitecautious optimism
Cycle phase
Mid-bull
Est. 12–18m to peak
Macro entry signal
Favourable
Multiple signals aligned
Risk / reward
3.2×
Current setup estimate
Triggers met
UVWCS >12✓ 15.9
MVRV <1.5✓ ×1.00
Miner stress: none✓
G4 liquidity expanding✓
Risk composite <0.40✓ 0.28
Risk flags
LTH distributing⚠ yes
STH spending at loss⚠ 0.999
MVRV not cheap~ fair value
OI leveragemoderate (2.8%)
10yr yield elevated4.31%
Allocation model · regime: accumulation
BTC spot
60%
Alts — tier 1
20%
Alts — tier 2
10%
Stablecoins
10%
DCA frequency
Weekly
Accumulation regime
Trigger status
Active
Score above threshold
Risk level
Medium
MVRV near fair value
Barbell portfolio
Safe side — defensive (70%)
70%
BTC + stablecoins
BTC
60%
Stablecoins
10%
Risk side — asymmetric bets (30%)
30%
High beta alts
Tier 1 alts
20%
Tier 2 alts
10%
Regime-based allocation guide
| Regime | BTC | Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Stables | Risk side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accumulation | 60% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Bull mid | 50% | 25% | 15% | 10% | 40% |
| Bull late | 40% | 20% | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Distribution | 30% | 10% | 5% | 55% | 15% |
| Bear | 20% | 5% | 0% | 75% | 5% |
Your position
#4
+270 pts to 3rd place
Current call
Accumulate
Placed 2026-06-28
Next decision
2d 14h
Round 3 opens
Leaderboard
| Rank | Player | Score | Win rate | Regime calls | Best streak | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 1 | AlphaNode | 2,840 | 74% | 12/16 | 6 | ACTIVE |
| 🥈 2 | SatoshiTrack | 2,610 | 68% | 11/16 | 4 | ACTIVE |
| 🥉 3 | ChainWatcher | 2,380 | 61% | 9/16 | 3 | ACTIVE |
| 4 | You | 2,210 | 58% | 8/16 | 4 | ACTIVE |
| 5 | NodeRunner | 1,940 | 52% | 7/16 | 2 | WATCHING |
| 6 | BlockSeer | 1,720 | 48% | 6/16 | 2 | WATCHING |
Season 4 — all-time rankings
| Rank | Player | Total pts | Win rate | Best streak | Avg accuracy | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AlphaNode | 2,840 | 74% | 6 | 78% | 4 |
| 2 | SatoshiTrack | 2,610 | 68% | 4 | 71% | 4 |
| 3 | ChainWatcher | 2,380 | 61% | 3 | 65% | 4 |
| 4 | You | 2,210 | 58% | 4 | 63% | 4 |
| 5 | NodeRunner | 1,940 | 52% | 2 | 55% | 3 |
chainfinit
app.chainfinit.com · Crypto Regime Dashboard
Node connection
Statusconnected
Node typeBitcoin Core (pruned)
Snapshot interval15 min
Last snapshot15 min ago
Block height956,106
Display settings
Trading pairBTC/USDT
CurrencyUSD
TimezoneUTC
UVWCS weight configuration
Claude Code: render sliders here — one per component metric (NUPL, LTH PVR, Supply P/L, MVRV, MVRV Z-Score, Realized P/L, MCTC, Active MVRV) with weight values 0–100 summing to 100. Wired to UVWCS engine recalculation.